"FACT" - Forecasting in Alpine and
Complex Terrain

Peter Parson, ZAMG, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
An increasing number of human and economic activities are influenced by intense weather events, which often have significant small-scale structures in the Alps. Numerical weather prediction models with high resolution provide relevant, but often conflicting information. The network of internationally available surface observations is too coarse to monitor the reliability and accuracy of the model output, especially in critical cases. Other high-resolution ground-based remote sensing data such as weather radar and lightning detection are not available for the whole area of interest.
Highly skilled forecasters still hold a considerable advantage over automated systems in the prediction of severe events and they act as competent partners in critical decision making processes. In order to fulfil these tasks, forecasters require access to all relevant data sources for the entire Alpine area by efficient communication channels. Ongoing professional training in the use of modern techniques and data sources would greatly benefit from a co-ordinated effort of all Alpine countries.

MAP initiates new meteorological collaboration
During the preparatory phase MAP, the contributing weather services invested considerable manpower and money to develop a forecasting team for the Special Observing Period (SOP). During this SOP the "Forecasters Working Group" had to provide highly specialised forecasts for the whole Alpine area at different time scales to support the research and aircraft teams in their decision making. The challenging task was to foster the international exchange of empirically gained local meteorological knowledge. A strong co-operation was established and for the first time an exchange of know-how and techniques between forecasters of all Alpine National Weather Services(NWS) initiated. Additionally, many scientists participated in this intense discussion process, which developed into a training exercise in forecasting techniques for mountainous terrain.
Among the more tangible results of this work is a checklist of forecast criteria and forecast thresholds for MAP-related weather events such as strong precipitation and storms in different Alpine areas, which were worked out by specialists with in-depth regional synoptic experience.
For the forecaster's workplace a new set of graphics tools to visualise numerical weather prediction (NWP) - output was created based on standard internet browser software. This software, being freely and generally available allows to work independently of historically-grown proprietary systems run by individual met services.
The results of this international co-operation are promising. The dynamic development of the MAP - Forecasters Working Group could serve as an important and effective impulse for an extended collaboration of the Alpine NWS on the rapidly growing and changing level of operational forecasting. The main targets of FACT are:

Education and training in Alpine synoptics and forecasting

On-the-job training:
Throughout the last decades large efforts have been dedicated to the understanding and modelling of the interaction between orography and atmospheric processes. Some, but not all NWS provide formal meteorological education and training mainly in a general sense. At regional weather services many rules and tools for specific local and regional forecasting in mountainous terrain have been developed. Exchange and discussion of such empirically gained know-how will act to validate and test these rules and the meteorological capacity of all participating institutions will benefit from them. Knowledge gained in such a way could then be transferred to all forecasters of the participating NWS in training sessions. The main topics for this development work would benefit from the preparation for the field phase of MAP:



Collaboration with scientific institutions:
A continued interaction between operational forecasters and the atmospheric sciences community should support the observational and analytical efforts of different services and institutions. Scientific publications and dissertations connected to mountainous forecasting would play an important role in forecaster training. FACT could be an active part in translating research findings into useful application in NWS operations. Special topics:

Assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction models

For MAP-SOP a common visualisation scheme for the output of different NWP models was created. Using this powerful system in operational forecasting would enable multilateral model critique and feedback for continuing development of NWP models. The forecasters could give an important support to the improvement of these models by providing regularly reports on model behaviour and by asking the right questions from the customer's point of view. Special topic:

Real-time co-operation in severe weather events
With growing population densities and higher dependence on technology, the importance of timely and reliable weather warnings in the Alpine region will increase further. Thus, there is a strong need for the further development of warning procedures and for the improvement of skill in severe weather forecasts. Automatic warning procedures need to be further developed, maintained and supervised. Many weather warnings require input from experienced and highly trained meteorologists. In spite of the large improvements in numerical weather prediction models and post processing procedures, their use in forecasting of exceptional events is still limited. Special topics:

Data exchange Many Alpine NWS have built up an automatic fine mesh surface observation network whose data are not transmitted in the GTS. In some Alpine regions the density of internationally available observations is still unsatisfactory and even lower than in non-Alpine parts of Europe. MAP demonstrated that the observations which are currently distributed globally in many cases are not able to represent the weather phenomena in a manner that allows a comparison with forecast fields. Free and efficient exchange of data is a prerequisite for an efficient operational weather monitoring and model critique. Some weather services make available measurements of their automatic network on the internet, often with a certain shift in time. So the necessary procedures for international data communication exist, and only slight changes and a minimum of common infrastructure could remarkably improve the data situation for short range forecasting in critical situations.
Interaction with other working groups and programmes:
To reduce costs and to ensure efficiency it is important to identify other organisations dealing with related topics. So far, three have been identified, where all partners would benefit from a collaboration or a co-ordination of actions.

Working Group of Central European Forecasters (WGCEF), aims to improve co-operation by exchange of information about the Forecast Offices, to exchange forecasters for training visits, exchange information during hazardous weather conditions and to promote forecaster conferences. FACT could benefit from the experience in collaboration, WG CEF could give information about and provide contact to forecast offices not participating in FACT.

Modes of operation
FACT is a demanding and complex project that has its roots in MAP. The experiences made there showed the high potential of benefit in the collaboration between the forecasting departments of the Alpine Weather Services. The still existing personal and institutional connections and the strong impulse caused by MAP should be used for this new project. The development of the whole project is time-critical to some extent. A step-by-step plan is suggested since some of the necessary structures cannot be established within a very short time.

Alerts
Simple communication by email using defined forms to be exchanged between the participating services is an informal and efficient way to discuss weather phenomena. The necessary structures have been installed during MAP, so this first step could immediately run without remarkable costs. At this stage no additional hardware or infrastructure is needed.

Education
The second step could be done by establishing roving seminars or by distance learning, e.g. on the internet. An example for this type of training is given by the web - page of the Forecaster Working Group of MAP, where meteorological information concerning typical forecast problems is collected and easily accessible for all members. Another task is to intensify the contact with experts from meteorological departments at universities and other institutions to propose and to organise training units. This step does not need additional operational common infrastructure either, but some space and maintenance on a web-server.

Meetings
There is still no additional operational infrastructure necessary, but some funding for travel expenses. The meetings should be hosted by the participating services for example on a rota basis.

Real-time co-operation in severe weather events
This topic first of all requires a well established communication scheme and alarm procedures involving all forecasters of the participating services. Second a significant proportion of the defined additional data must be available in real-time, for which a special database is needed. The installation of the whole system is challenging. However the improvement in forecasting accuracy and the resulting benefits justify the investments.

School for Alpine forecasting
Currently, no meteorological service is providing formalised, practical training in forecasting for the entire Alps. For historical, political and economical reasons Alpine meteorology is much more present in science than in operational training. As a first step, the experiences and results of MAP could be used for a continuous on-the-job-training for Alpine forecasters. Further roving seminars could be organised in conjunction with FACT - meetings.

Next steps:

© MAP Data Centre - March '01 - MAP WebMaster