Prior to the MSC Meeting the outcome of the discussion on the future of MAP was entirely unclear. Indeed, MSC chairman Philippe Bougeault introduced the subject by presenting two conceivable basic lines of action re the future of MAP without prejudice and not knowing what the outcome was going to be.
A number of other important items needed to be addressed, so the continuation of the MAP Data Centre (MDC) after the end of the current funding, the final reports of the data quality effort DAQUAMAP (See DAQUAMAP Activities.) and the SOP reanalysis project, the handling of the dry bias problem of Vaisala radio sondes, and the societal impact component of MAP. In the following a report is given of the fifth MAP Steering Committee (MSC) Meeting took place in Brig, Switzerland, 22-23 May 2003, in the framework of the joint ICAM/MAP Meeting 2003 (See Short Conference Report on the ICAM/MAP Meeting 2003.).
The future of MAP was the outstanding topic of the MSC meeting and it turned out to be quite exciting. Ph. Bougeault opened the discussion by introducing two conceivable basic lines of action. The first, conservative approach would refrain from encouraging any new actions or projects, conclude the harvest the results of ongoing research over the next two years, and discontinue MAP, for instance by the end of the current funding cycle of MAP-NWS, i.e. end of 2005. A strong final report on MAP, including the progress in NWP since 1999, is maybe the most important short term goal to be reached by the MSC in this scenario.
On the other hand, given sufficient enthusiasm and interest, MAP can support and help launch one or several project/activities well into the next five years or so. For instance, MAP could set out to demonstrate the potential for forecast improvement by means of a WWRP Forecast Demonstration Experiment (FDP). It would be certainly regrettable not to show the progress that lies at hand. However, 2005 is too short a horizon to establish and conduct an FDP, as some two years are needed to get it off ground, plus bearing in mind that more than one season is needed for an FDP for the rather rare events under investigation. Ideally, such an FDP would be led by the application-oriented NWSs. The MSC established a group of people that will explore the feasibility of an FDP, maybe in the Lago Maggiore area, and will review this issue at its next meeting in January 2004.After having considered bringing MAP to a full stop, the discussion became quite lively and acquired more a prospective character. It was noted that MAP evolved from a main goal of ALPEX - Foehn - that remained unsolved because of the weather encountered during its field phase. A knowledgeable group of scientists should think about the important open and challenging questions after MAP that would point to a successor field project and excite a new generation of young scientists. Joachim Kuettner's vast experience tells him that if an experiment goal is missing, MAP - and more importantly the MAP community - will dissolve. There was a strong agreement that the network established by MAP is an ideal platform from which to start new activities and needs to be sustained. It was proposed to establish a new vision in the course of the next couple of conferences, even to organize dedicated science prospective workshops in order to identify unsolved questions, compile the MAP legacy, define further field programmes, and - find a new name. A Science and Prospective Group (SPG) led by Ron Smith for the time being, has been established. It should be extended with experts coming from outside MAP in order to not to be fixed on the same set of problems. The SPG committed to organize a first prospective workshop.
After an extended and quite worthwhile discussion Ph. Bougeault summarized that four lines of actions should clearly be pursued in order to bring MAP to a satisfactory end:
There are several options for the format of the MAP's scientific conclusions, but it was agreed that a written document is absolutely necessary, while a final conference is an option. The MSC decided that the current Working Group chairpersons will form a panel, chaired by R. Smith and H. Volkert to elaborate a proposal regarding the format and timing of the assessment of MAP results. The MSC will review the proposal of the panel and decide on these issues at its 6th meeting.
Securing the MDC up to and beyond the end of 2005 is a core concern of the MSC. It drafted a request to MeteoSwiss regarding the possibility of integrating the MDC into the central MeteoSwiss data base (Data Ware House, DWH). The original request of having the system set up identically to the present system was relaxed in order not to pose too strict constraints. However, it is desirable that today's programs and procedures of data retrieval be usable in the future installation. The level of comfort and support will depend on the level of requests. P. Binder ensured that MeteoSwiss is faithful to its commitment given to MAP so far, so that a scenario of more restrictive data access is very unlikely. A formal statement was adopted by the MSC concerning the MDC beyond 2005. In order to ensure a smooth transition process and correction of possible problems, the new MDC facility should enter into operations early in 2005.
Christian Keil presented the final report, of the MAP SOP reanalysis performed at ECMWF (Tech. Memorandum 401 available at ECMWF, See The ECMWF Re-Analysis of the MAP SOP: Final Report Available.), pointing to a number of interesting aspects of the reanalysis. The most spectacular problem found, the drying of the atmosphere during IOP-2a that suppressed convection in numerical simulations conducted by E. Richard, turned out to be an isolated phenomenon (see report for the cause of the drying). The MSC decided to:
R. Steinacker presented an assessment of the correction scheme. The impact of the correction ratio between corrected and uncorrected values yields up to 15% of difference in the total column vapour for the radio sounding of Cagliari, and is of the same order for other stations. I.e. it is a systematic and rather serious bias. It was noted that it is worthwhile to have the corrected data available soon, even only a part of them, as some groups work with data sets that are limited in time and space. Moreover, the correction procedure will be accessible for all data provider, even if some parts of the implemented algorithms were derived from grey literature.
Small humidity differences can be crucial for the onset of convection, so that the MSC decision to do the reanalysis without waiting for the bias correction, turned out to be unfortunate. The reanalysis can not be redone on the present ECMWF computer system without a dedicated, i.e. specifically funded effort. This dry bias problem is much more serious for ERA-40, as the details of old radio sondes are likely to be lost. A reanalysis taking into account the dry bias is conceivable but may be a few years down the road when other data problems are solved/cleared. However, global (re)analyses are often used as a starting point into which additional observations are included, e.g. by nudging. This alleviating factor could be an additional recommendation to the MAP community concerning this problem. Also, the MSC decided to have the results published in the peer reviewed literature in order to allow referencing in other papers. The original and bias-corrected radio sonde data are to be transferred to the MDC, the users alerted concerning this problem.
Ph. Bougeault conveyed to the MSC the congratulations of the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) for the results of MAP and the organization of the workshop on societal impact. WWRP also urged the MAP community to come forward with a proposal for a Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP). The WWRP concept of FDP means that new forecasting tools are used in real time for a certain period, with involvement of a selected set of actual end users. At the end of the demonstration period, an objective assessment of the benefits to the end users panel must be performed. The Societal Impact Workshop (SIW) in Bad Tölz, 24-25 Oct 2002 provided room for good discussions but little work has been initiated so far. The Lago Maggiore Strawman proposal has been presented to the Ticino water authorities but echoed only a general interest. There is the need to formalize the idea and aim at making an addition to what is currently being done operationally. The MSC decided to postpone further invitation of societal impacts specialists to the MSC until a clear decision has been made on whether MAP will develop a FDP or not.
Finally, MSC chairman Ph. Bougeault has moved to the position of head of research at ECMWF and wished to step down from the MSC chair position, preferably with no time delay (see Editorial). It was pointed out that the new perspectives on the future of MAP make it necessary to re-consider the implications tied with chairing the MSC, and that the institution should be weighed as well as the person when deciding upon the new MSC chair, keeping the NWSs strongly involved in MAP. Ph. Bougeault accepted to carry on chairing the MSC until the next MSC Meeting. Joachim Kuettner, on behalf the MSC, addressed words of sincere appreciation and gratitude to Philippe Bougeault for his effective leadership throughout the programme, and, specifically, during the field experiment. The new MSC chairman will be elected in next MSC Meeting in January 2004.
At its ninth Meeting the IGP recognized that it had fullfilled its main purposes in promoting MAP to the national weather services and national funding agencies. Therefore the IGP decided to discontinue its activities, so that the MSC will bear the main responsibility for leading MAP into the future. On the other hand, Th. Gutermann, chairman of the IGP, became full member of the MSC, a fact that provides a certain continuation of the IGP within MAP. Also, the MAP-NWS Board, the official body taking care of the funding of the MAP Data Centre and the Programme Office, will be in officio until the end of 2005. Three members of the latter served as IGP members also.
