2.2 Operational quantitative precipitation forecast of the Piedmont flood event at the Regional Meteorological Service of Emilia-Romagna

T. Paccagnella, P. Patruno, C. Cacciamani, Regional Meteorological Service of Emilia Romagna, Bologna, Italy

Introduction

This work illustrates the operational performance of LAMBO (Limited Area Model Bologna) in forecasting the intense and continuous precipitation, which caused the flood event that occurred on the 5th and 6th of November 1994. As described in the previous paper of this Newsletter(Buzzi et al. 1995, hereafter referred as BA95), precipitation occurred principally on the 5th due to the persistent impinging of a low-level southerly flow, which moistened during the passage over the sea and was blocked by the Alpine chain. LAMBO, running operationally at SMR/ER, is a grid-point primitive equation model mainly based on the 1989 version of the Limited Area Model operational at the National Meteorological Centre of Washington (NMC). The SMR operational chain consists of two runs of LAMBO; the first run is performed at about 40 km horizontal resolution and the second one at about 20 km. Initial Conditions and Boundary Conditions are taken from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) operational objective initialized analyses and forecasts. All the operational numerical integrations are performed on a CRA Y C94 machine of the CINECA computer centre (University Computer centre) in Bologna. The two operational runs at different horizontal resolutions are compared with observations, and they show a generally good performance of the model with a noticeable impact of the horizontal resolution, in particular with regard to the representation of precipitation maxima. Some of the precipitation data and the meteorological description of the situation are not included in this paper, and the reader is referred to the aforementioned BA95.

Description of the model

The meteorological limited area model LAMBO operational at SMR/ER is a grid-point primitive equation model based upon a version dated 1989 of the ETA (UB/NMC) model (now operational at the National Meteorological Centre of Washington, NOAA-NMC, see Mesingeret al., 1988; Black, 1988; Janijc, 1990; Lazic and Telenta 1990). LAMBO has recently been upgraded in some parts of the physical parameterization schemes from the new version of the NMC code, and with a new radiation code from Meteo-France (Ritterand Geleyn, 1992). Since the radiation code has not yet been modified to allow for the ETA vertical coordinate, the operational version of the model is at the moment

FIGURE 1:Observed 24 hours cumulated precipitation during the 6th.
Data in these maps come from the GTS synoptic network and from local networks belonging to various northern Italian institutions, as reported in the acknowledgments of BA95.


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MAP Newsletter. October '00