The Raphael Project

The Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XII, after having completed the scientific evaluation, has approved funding for another project under MAP auspices, RAPHAEL. The acronym means Runoff and Atmospheric Processes for flood HAzard forEcasting and controL. The idea was suggested by a fresco in Rome of the great painter Raphael, depicting Plato and Aristotle pointing their arms, respectively, to the sky and to the earth. They are symbols for us of meteorologists and hydrologists who will cooperate in improving the coupled meteorological and hydrological flood forecasts in a mountainous environment like the European Alps. As Philippe Bougeault wished in his editorial (MAP Newsletters #5) 'atmosphericians and hydrologists can work hand in hand in MAP for their mutual benefit'.

The project's objectives and the expected achievements

The basic objective of RAPHAEL is to develop, implement and demonstrate the use of coupled meteorological and hydrological models at the regional scale in order to improve flood forecasting and management in complex mountain watersheds.

• With this guideline further objectives are delineated as follows:to apply coupled atmospheric-hydrological models and carry out a multi-scenario modelling experiment to show the potential use of advanced flood forecasts in view of the reservoir regulations during hazardous flood events;
• to investigate the benefits achievable in atmospheric models by introducing hydrological feedback with detailed land-surface schemes, including snow and ice dynamics;
• to validate meteorological data generated by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and meteorological observations by means of runoff measurements and distributed hydrologic water balance calculations;
• to investigate the benefits of remotely-sensed land surface parameters, state variables and fluxes (e.g., land cover, soil moisture, snow cover, evapotranspiration) as related to sub-grid parameterization of both atmospheric and hydrologic models;
• to improve techniques and tools for scale-adaptation of observed and simulated variables, with particular reference to the areal distribution of rainfall, snow cover, and land-surface-atmosphere fluxes.

The expected achievements of the project are:

• the establishment of a set of guidelines for a consistent and effective technology based on coupling of atmospheric and hydrologic models to be implemented for operational flood forecasting purposes in alpine regions;
• an improved knowledge of atmospheric and hydrological processes at the land surface, with special emphasis on the representation of system heterogeneities, including their effects on the scaling properties of the hydrological response;
• the establishment of a set of guidelines for the use of coupled hydro-meteorological forecasts as a fundamental information for the efficient management of trans-national catchments in alpine regions, in particular the operation of regulated reservoirs, for the mitigation of hazardous flood events.

Some of the MAP scientific objectives are, therefore, acknowledged here.

The study areas

Simulation experiments with hydrological-meteorological models will be implemented in two areas represented in the figure: the Ammer watershed (600 km2) in the Bavarian Alps and the watershed upstream the Lago Maggiore at its outlet (6599 km2). The last basin, across Switzerland and Italy, is drained by the Ticino, Maggia, Verzasca (in Switzerland) and Toce (in Italy)

rivers and other minor tributaries but can be referred as Ticino-Toce, for simplicity. It is in the core of one of the MAP target areas. The Ammer watershed is north of the Brenner Pass, another area of specific interest for the MAP scientific objectives.

Figure 1. The two test areas of the RAPHAEL Project.

The choice of these regions should produce benefits for MAP because a deeper understanding of the hydrology and the meteorology of those areas, as well as a lot of additional data, will be available to the scientific community. The project's duration is two years and the commencement is expected for the beginning of 1998. The project will simulate some relevant flood events that occurred in the Alps in the last years, by means of a coupled use of meteorological and hydrological models.

The predictive capabilities of some advanced mesoscale models will be tested against rainfall 'observations' by means of raingauge and radar (Monte Lema and DLR) operational networks as well as by means of river discharge measurements and computations by hydrological models. Hydrological models will use the precipitation forecasts and observations for implemen-ting a flood forecasting system in a complex environment where snowmelt and reservoir regulation affect flood regimes. Although the project does not aim to produce real-time operational forecasts of rainfall and runoff, a lot of experience will be gained in view of this application that might possibly be implemented at the time of the MAP SOP.

The partnership

To achieve the project's goals 11 partners will contribute with their multidisciplinary expertise. The institutions carrying out the work are:

1. Universita' di Brescia, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Brescia - I.
2. CNRS, Universiti Paul Sabatier, Laboratoire d'Aerologie, Toulouse - F.
3. University of Muenich, Department of Geography and Geographical Remote Sensing, MŸnchen - D.
4. Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Idraulica, Ambientale e del Rilevamento, Milano - I.
5. ISAO-CNR, Bologna - I.
6. VISTA - Remote Sensing Applications in Geosciences, Wessling - D.
7. DLR-Institut f|r Physik der AtmosphŠre, Oberpfaffenhofen - D.
8. MeteoSwiss, Zurich - CH.
9. Institute of Geography, ETH, Zurich - CH.
10. Atmospheric Environment Service-Environment Canada, Dorval - Canada.
11. University of Waterloo, Department of Civil Engineering, Waterloo - Canada.

Most of the participants are active members of the wide MAP 'family' and the multidisciplinar approach to the project should be ensured by the balanced contribution of hydrologists and meteorologists.

End-users have expressed interest in RAPHAEL and will participate in some of its activities including progress meetings. The Consorzio del Ticino Water Authority, the Swiss National Hydrological and Geological Survey, and the Bavarian Water Authority will also be involed in some of the project's activities.

No particular emphasis is placed on field experiments apart from measurements of operational networks, and, as a consequence, the cooperation with institutions and research laboratories interested in monitoring meteorologocal and hydrological processes in the two study areas is encouraged for mutual benefit.