This site documents the status of MAP and MAP D-PHASE as of 28.4.2009, the publication date of the report on the WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project D-PHASE entitled "MAP D-PHASE: Demonstrating forecast capabilities for flood events in the Alpine region". Updated information on D-PHASE can be obtained from www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/web/en/research/current_projects/forecast/dphase.html
The main objective of MAP D-PHASE, the MAP Forecast Demonstration Project, is to demonstrate the benefits in forecasting heavy precipitation and related (flash) flood events, as gained from the improved understanding, refined atmospheric and hydrological modelling, and advanced technological abilities acquired through research work during the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP).
Specifically, an end-to-end forecasting system for Alpine flood events is set up to demonstrate state-of-the-art forecasting of precipitation-related high-impact weather. This system includes probabilistic forecasting based on atmospheric and hydrological ensemble prediction systems with a lead time of a few days, followed by short-range forecasts based on high-resolution deterministic atmospheric and hydrological models for selected regions or catchments, and is completed with real-time nowcasting tools. Throughout the forecasting chain, warnings are issued and re-evaluated as the potential flooding event approaches, allowing forecasters and end users to alert and make decisions in due time.
As the first Research and Development Project (RDP) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) has seen three phases: a development phase (1993 - 1999; Binder and Schär 1996) when the plans were made and the project was designed, the field phase with the Special Observing Period (SOP; Bougeault et al. 2001) in autumn 1999, and the analysis phase (Volkert 2005) that is still ongoing and has brought a wealth of exciting new results and insight in Alpine meteorology.
In 2004, the MAP Steering Committee mandated a working group to explore the possibility and interest in a fourth phase: a demonstration phase. From the many achievements of MAP (Volkert 2005), forecasting heavy precipitation and related flooding events in the Alpine region and the associated issues of orographically enhanced precipitation, high-resolution numerical weather prediction, and hydrological processes have subsequently been chosen as the topic for the MAP Forecast Demonstration Project (MAP FDP). The project thereby addresses the entire forecasting chain ranging from observations, ensemble forecasting, high-resolution cloud-resolving atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling, and nowcasting to decision making by end users (civil protection authorities, water management and hydrological agencies, etc.), i.e., it sets up an end-to-end forecasting system. To emphasize the main objective of the fourth phase of MAP, the MAP FDP is referred to as D-PHASE, which stands for Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region.
The WWRP endorsed MAP D-PHASE as the second WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) in October 2005.
The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) has been from 1 June to 30 November 2007.
MAP has brought significant progress in the following fields of research that are relevant for MAP D-PHASE:
As more specific objectives, MAP D-PHASE is setting up a distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system with which it aims at
MAP D-PHASE aims at establishing a distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system for heavy precipitation and subsequent flood events in the Alpine region. It is based on the following items (in chronological order):
Figure 1: Conceptual sketch of the real-time end-to-end forecasting system for D-PHASE.
For more details on the practical implementation of the distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system and its evaluation, see the MAP D-PHASE Implementation Plan.
For more on the organisational structure of D-PHASE (i.e., Steering Committee, Working Groups, etc), check out ´Organisation´.
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Benoit, R., C. Schär, P. Binder, S. Chamberland, H. C. Davies, M. Desgagne, C. Girard, C. Keil, N. Kouwen, D. Lüthi, D. Maric, E. Müller, P. Pellerin, J. Schmidli, F. Schubiger, C. Schwierz, M. Sprenger, A. Walser, S. Willemse, W. Yu, and E. Zala, 2002: The real-time ultrafinescale forecast support during the special observing period of the MAP. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, 85-109.
Benoit R, N. Kouwen, W. Yu, S. Chamberland, and P. Pellerin, 2003: Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of the MAP. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7, 877-889.
Binder, P. and C. Schär, 1996: MAP Design Proposal. Available online at http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/map-doc/proposal.htm.
Bougeault, P., P. Binder, A. Buzzi, R. Dirks, R. Houze, J. Kuettner, R. B. Smith, R. Steinacker, and H. Volkert, 2001: The MAP special observing period. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82, 433-462.
Bousquet, O. and B. Smull, 2003: Observations and impacts of upstream blocking during a widespread orographic precipitation event. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 129, 391-409.
Buzzi A., S. Davolio, M. D'Isidoro, and P. Malguzzi, 2004: The impact of resolution and of MAP reanalysis on the simulations of heavy precipitation during MAP cases. Meteologische Zeitschrift, 13, 91-97.
Ducrocq, V., D. Ricard, J.-P. Lafore, and F. Orain, 2002: Storm-scale Numerical Rainfall Prediction for Five Precipitating Events over France: On the Importance of the Initial Humidity Field. Weather and Forecasting, 17, 1236-1256.
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Leuenberger, D., 2005: High-Resolution Radar Rainfall Assimilation: Exploratory studies with Latent Heat Nudging. Ph.D. thesis ETH Zurich, Switzerland, Nr. 15884. Available online at http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/cgi-bin/show.pl?type=diss&nr=15884.
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Ranzi, R.; B. Bacchi, and G. Grossi: 2003, Runoff measurements and hydrological modelling for the estimation of rainfall volumes in an alpine basin. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 129, 653-673.
Richard, E., S. Cosma, R. Benoit, P. Binder, A. Buzzi, and P. Kaufmann, 2003: Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7, 799-811.
Richard, E., A. Buzzi, G. Zängl, N. Ascencio, R. Benoit, S. Chiao, R. Ferretti, C. Hohenegger, C. Keil, Y L. Lin, C. Marsigli, S. Medina, and C. Schär, 2005: Quantitative precipitation forecasting in mountaineous regions - pushed ahead by MAP. Proceedings of ICAM/MAP 2005, Zadar, Croatia, 23-27 May 2005, 65-69. Available online at http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/map-doc/icam2005/proceedings.html.
Rotunno, R. and R. Ferretti, 2003: Orographic effects on rainfall in MAP cases IOP 2b and IOP 8. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 129, 373-390.
Volkert, H., 2005: The Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) - a multi-facetted success story. Proceedings of ICAM/MAP 2005, Zadar, Croatia, 23-27 May 2005, 226-230. Available online at http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/map-doc/icam2005/proceedings.html.
Walser, A. and C. Schär, 2004: Convection-resolving precipitation forecasting and its predictability in Alpine river catchments. Journal of Hydrology, 288, 57-73.
Walser, A., D. Lüthi, and C. Schär, 2004: Predictability of precipitation in a cloud-resolving model. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 560-577.