WG Verification
Chairperson: Manfred Dorninger
Description of WG Verification (WG-VER)
During MAP D-PHASE several ensemble prediction systems (EPS), new high resolution
NWP models and hydrological models will be run over the same target area. This
allows for a unique possibility to inter-compare the performance of the models
as well as of the whole model chain. The set-up of an appropriate evaluation/verification
protocol is the first task of this working group. The standard verification procedures
will not only be performed on a ‘post event’ basis for studying the model performance
for the whole event but also in a real time mode. This mode supports the forecaster
in his decision on which forecast model he can rely on in the now-casting approach.
A successful forecast does not necessarily have any value to its final user. In
close cooperation with the working group Hydrology and End Users (WG-HEU) it is therefore the
second emphasis of the verification scheme to evaluate the potential economic
value of the forecasts. This results in a special effort to strengthen the
dialogue and collaboration with the end users since the forecaster can not have
solid knowledge of the economic implications and risks of particular weather
events. The economic value of forecast information in different decision situations
has to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. An overall evaluation of the
decision making process with the end users will try to establish what benefit
had been obtained from what component of the warning system.
MAP Data Centre - April '06 - MAP WebMaster